There are a number of ghosts that haunt us in our modern world today, these ghosts were created by seemingly small actions back in time.
A butterfly flapping its wings in New Mexico, causing a storm storm in China is one way of illustrating the possibilities of the butterfly effect. It seems random, yet there is a connection and it has an outcome. Now consider the case where there is a more obvious direct relation between cause and effect, let us examine a few historic events that mankind would have been better off without.
Certainly the worst possible consequences of our actions result in devastating wars. Many of our wars were in fact completely avoidable by a small change in initial conditions (and hindsight): what if we could have avoided the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand which led to ~16 million dead and 20 million wounded in the first world war. WWI was a major cause of WWII (domino effect), with another 60 million dead. Shortly after WWII, the world now riled-up with weapons and conquest, Khrushchev stands on a podium proudly declaring in 1956 that "we will bury you" - this really ignited an expensive and drawn-out cold war, a WWIII that fatefully was (largely) diffused.
Did killing Franz Ferdinand almost cause the earth to go up in a mushroom cloud?
Another chain of events; the participants of the Paris Peace Conference in 1919 ignored the early attempts of Ho Chi Minh to create a democratic French Indochina (Vietnam) modeled after the US declaration of independence (again a colony demanding independence). Ho Chi Minh finally did find support from the Communists, this unfortunate path resulted in a dreadful cold war conflict - resulting in ~1'000'000 deaths.
One of the more striking examples of oil wars is the instance of the democratically elected prime minister of Iran - Mohammad Mosaddegh. He was a very positive influence for the citizens of Iran, his administration introduced a range of progressive social and political reforms. Mosaddegh was removed from power in a coup in 1953, organized and carried out by the USA's CIA at the request of the British MI6. This was a very unsuccessful attempt to maintain the oppressive status-quo for British Petroleum's (BP) interests in the region. This was also the first time the CIA operated outside of the USA. Imagine for a minute, had there been no intervention by the West, and we had a truly democratic Iran today, what would the world look like today? It is not to much of a stretch to see a much more peaceful Middle-East.
Ever since 1953 the USA has been playing damage control over that fateful decision in Iran. US attempts to stabilize the oil-rich Middle East resulted in the USA taking sides with the Taliban in Afghanistan (against the Soviets) and with Iraq (against Iran). Both relationships back-firing later - coming to haunt the USA with a series of Gulf Wars. Was the US so short-sighted at the time? was it predictable? Why is the USA over there in the first place? Does the USA flapping it's wings in the Middle East cause a storm back home in the USA?
9-11 - how many people ask the question of what really triggered this event? what was the root cause? It is easy to dismiss Bin-Laden as "crazy", after all - who would take on the USA in their right mind. It is nice and tidy to rationalize it this way: someone crazy started this whole mess, eliminate the crazy element and we are back to normal. It just is not that simple, and if we go look at the root cause it just may bring up a reality we would rather not confront. So most of do not.
Being stationed over in the middle-east makes the USA a target and forces the US to be involved with the day to day drama of very unstable countries - had the USA not been stationed in the Middle-East (largely to keep oil flowing), the USA would be very unlikely to have become a target of the Al-Qaeda. This is in no way saying that the actions of AL-Qaeda are in any way justified, however the USA had a role to play in this awful event as well. How much longer does the USA need to remain involved in these messy affairs outside it's borders?
The attack on 9-11 resulted in a long and drawn-out war with many nations conscripted to participate to take out al-Qaeda - and during this war of vengeance the USA's blood-lust unwisely triggered yet one more new war against the sovereign nation of Iraq. A very misguided leadership confusing the public with WMDs and a very generic enemy called "terrorists", when all along it was about oil and a war machine looking for work to do, and who knows what else. Another domino effect. That topic is too large to cover here, yet again, had the USA not had a war with AL-Qaeda it is really hard to imagine a war on Iraq. Now the real interesting question is, how many new butterfly took flight after these last two wars? What kind of storms will there be and where? What are the consequences in our world's future for these last few monumental actions where so many people were deeply affected? A lot more people than one Franz Ferdinand were affected here.
And it continues today; we have a semi-secret branch of the military (JSOC) now is busy in new countries (Yemen), the USA continues to flap it's wings in the middle-east... with unknown but potentially big consequences. For more on this topic watch the video "Dirty Wars". I say it is time to come home, become energy independent as soon as possible and not expose ourselves to the world's unstable elements. We have alternatives.
Theodore Roosevelt used the phrase regarding the diplomatic use of force. It was "Speak softly and carry a big stick; you will go far". We need to speak softly again, instead of sending drones and cruise missiles to blast our way out of problems. Teddy was a wise and educated man, wish more of his type were around these days in the government.
There are some positive butterfly effects these days, it is not all doom and gloom. A rich billionaire (Elon Musk) spends his new found fortune on impossible spaceships and impossible electric cars. The auto industry wakes up from the gas guzzling SUV era and sees a silicon valley start-up make the coolest car ever created (the Tesla Roadster) forcing them to play along. Every major car manufacturer is either producing EVs or soon will, the growth-rate of adoption of these cars is exponential. They are amazing to drive and they are the future.
Elon goes to Burning Man with his cousin (Lyndon Rive), they decide to do something cool and make every home and business create their own energy from the sun. Now we can charge our EVs from an inexhaustible resource that will not start new wars. The Tesla Giga factory is breaking ground in Nevada, it will reduce the cost of batteries significantly, allowing a very affordable car to be built for every man, and one that does not need oil.
It is really comforting to know that there is yet a very wonderful outcome possible from all of this wing flapping here in the USA. We will see.
I write this on the anniversary of 9-11, in hope that there will be a wonderful way out of the ugly past we all experienced. That we realize that there is a much more complex and interconnected story behind the tumultuous events of recent past, and that we all shape these events with our everyday simple actions, like filling up our SUV or voting for a particular government official. Time to find a real long term solution for our addiction to oil. Time to end oil.
