energy - the life-blood of our modern world - everyday decisions trigger actions - consequences we cause - impact of which we often dare not think - what now ?
Tuesday, June 10, 2014
from M3 to i3 - hard to fathom
Earlier this year I test drove the controversial BMW i3. Even before I had actually sat in one, I put myself very first on the list of buyers for the state of Arizona, once they were to become available. My desire to own and drive a battery electric Vehicle (BEV) has its roots in the renewable energy business as well as the last few oil wars - oil must end.
I have been a big fan of BMW products for over ten years, being an engineer, I really appreciate a machine where the bean counters are not in control. The renowned car industrialist Bob Lutz has something to say about that topic in his book "Car Guys vs. Bean counters". I have owned three BMWs over the years, and my last one was a spectacular M3, a car with scary limits - and so well designed, that for years it was the benchmark by which other automakers were measured. It was one the best cars I have owned. So as I made my deposit for the i3 and put myself on the waiting list, I was quite confident the BMW i3 will be a great success.
My local BMW salesman Karl sold me the M3 years ago, he called me one day and informed me that he had two i3s available for a 1-day test drive - I jumped at the opportunity. Prior to this I had driven a Tesla Model S - so I knew what to expect from electric cars - the quick, relentless, and quite acceleration. Terrific handling due to a low center of gravity, a new man-machine interface - a car from the future. When Karl and I sat down in the i3 it turned out the he had never been behind the steering wheel himself - and it was his first time on the road as well.
Karl is a retired race car driver, and himself an M3 owner when I met him 10 years ago. His idea of fun was to race his M3 on the weekends on the track, a real car guy. We took the i3 for a spin - and the car was wonderful to drive; an entirely new feel inside, clean, flowing lines, a minimalist approach, all for the purpose of making the driving experience as pleasant as possible. It is a big step away from the traditional BMW experience but the essential elements required to make a driver happy remain.I was sold and eager to take delivery in a few months.
I do think that deep down Karl was disappointed, or could not understand my motivation - that I would sell my M3 for the i3. These vehicles are not the same for many reasons, the comparison is inappropriate. Each is built for an entirely different purpose, and I have transitioned from speed racer to environmentally conscious driver, he had not. Completely understandable as we each have our path in life. I love the looks and sounds of a Lamborghini or Ferrari as much as any car nut with testosterone and adrenalin in their veins. These exotics are very seductive cars, and I am constantly tempted when I see one - it is just the fuel they use that turns me off. Fossil fuel based oil must end - and I for one will stop using it if at all possible.
Electric cars have a few limitations today (range, payload, charging sources), so there is a real risk in buying one, not the safest investment it would seem. Would you buy one today, if not why?
I would imagine most of us have a conscious or subconscious love for our cars - they provide freedom to go fast and for vast distances in comfort - to anywhere we wish. For me, I became a connoisseur of sporty driver-oriented cars when I lived in the Santa Cruz mountains in California; my first real sports car experiences was with a number of Alfa-Romeos and a 1967 Firebird convertible. Wonderful cars. Living on the twisty mountain roads I would replace tires more often than perform oil changes. It is quite the sensation to press your foot down - and hear and feel the immense power under the hood propelling you wherever you want. A well engineered car becomes an extension of yourself; through your fingers on the wheel and the seat of your pants - you connect to the tires and suspension - and claw yourself around corners or up hills as one. You become one with the machine. I can understand the people washing and waxing their car as an act of love, returning the favor.
Cars are also important since we see the world through our cars; we go on "Sunday drives", we go down main-street to socialize (in the real world), or we plan a nice road-trip to visit some scenic place. For some of us it is more mundane; we just need a car to get to work and pick up the groceries.
In any case, for the vast majority of the USA we need our cars in order to live, they are here to stay for now. In fact the USA has over 250 million automobiles - almost one for every man woman and child. So what is the problem with the status-quo?
For me it was the last few oil wars. Fascinating, horrific, and very sad - to watch the high technology battles; stealth planes, smart bombs, drones, all taking care of the business of securing our future oil reserves. Saddam was the easy "bad guy" target it seemed, invading Kuwait, this had to be stopped - plain and simple it seemed. Next came 9-11.
This was quite the wake-up call; why did they attack? Aren't we the good guys? Deep down we all know that these oil wars are all about energy - and who is in control of the last dwindling reserves we are all utterly dependent on.
Now looking back at over 10 years of wars - scores of lives lost on all sides (100'000's) - far too many maimed veterans and civilians - and enormous sums spent (many trillions) - it was not worth it it seems to me. If we had the ability to back up in time - we would have been far better off to just spend a fraction of this money providing sustainable solutions to everyone here back at home.
Simple math: the cost of these last few wars is anywhere between $3-6 trillion . So let's say 5 trillion dollars - divide that by 250 million U.S. autos on the road today. That amounts to a $20'000 oil war cost for every car in the USA. Not counting the moral and human costs. Granted - we use oil for more than passenger cars, I am trying to put a scale on the vast sums we have spent..
So since we can not turn back time this begs the question, going forward, whose children will we send to fight in the next oil war? Should we continue to drive gas guzzling SUVs considering the real cost we pay for oil? Are we just mindless consumers that only care what the price of gasoline is at the pump, come hell or high water (climate change and war)? Is there an alternative, and do alternatives exist? Are the alternatives sustainable, and when do we really need to act? I spend time on these topics in another rant of mine (here). In my mind no one should be dying so I can drive a car, we must preserve the remaining oil for important products like medicine and carbon fiber, we have a choice and can act, the BEV is the solution - and the time is now.
So a wholesale change of transportation energy infrastructure - gas pumps to outlets powered by solar and wind. Is there enough electricity? It turns out that we actually do have enough today - and from an unlikely source: refining oil. Here is a quote from another car industry titan "You have enough electricity to power all the cars in the country if you stop refining gasoline," says Elon Musk. "You take an average of 5 kilowatt hours to refine [one gallon of] gasoline, something like the Model S can go 20 miles on 5 kilowatt hours." Amazing, we have the energy, we just spend it on transforming oil to gasoline. We can easily charge cars up at night when the grid is idle anyway, so no insurmountable problem ahead of us.
It turns out that EVs are a great amount of fun as well; faster, quieter, cleaner, and with special privileges for the early adopters; access to better parking and to the HOV lanes during rush hour. And it costs about 1/4th to replenish the energy in an EV - compared to an equivalent internal combustion engine vehicle. They are that much more efficeint, and electricity is relatively inexpensive compared to oil based energy. The cost to operate an EV is far lower than just the energy due to the simplicity of the machine. It's like a big cordless drill with few moving parts.
It took less than 19 years to transition from horses to automobiles. The first affordable Ford Model T was sold in 1908, and in 1927 the 15 millionth one rolled of the assembly line. I would not be surprised if it took even less time for us to transition again. And transitioning we are; the growth rate of EVs world-wide is exponential, over 170'000 "plug in" vehicles on the road in the USA in 2014, about ten times more than in 2011.
I could not wait any longer, and the BMW i3 delivery date kept pushing out, so I ended up ordering a Tesla Model S and I am not looking back.
Tesla it is, goodby M3 dear friend, time to wax and wash my Model S.
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